The most-traded SHFE tin contract fluctuated and closed up 3.08%, with downstream demand significantly suppressed by prices. [SMM Tin Futures Review]

On January 20, the most-traded SHFE tin SN2602 contract generally showed a volatile trend, closing at 399,000 yuan/mt by the end of the session, up 3.08% intraday. Today, market trading activity gradually shifted to the SN2603 contract, while the SN2602 contract saw a price rise accompanied by declining open interest. On the external market, the three-month LME tin also strengthened, temporarily quoted at $50,600, up 1.52%, holding up well within the range.

Spot market trading sentiment was generally mediocre, with the price center moving higher today, and downstream players generally maintained a cautious stance. Some rigid demand orders were released during the previous two days of price pullbacks, but the current price rebound has once again dampened buying enthusiasm. From the downstream sectors, traditional consumer electronics remain in the off-season, with limited demand follow-through; although the PV sector saw some export rush demand due to the impact of the export tax rebate cancellation, amid the overall strength in the metals sector and high raw material prices, order releases from enterprises remained restrained.

In the tin chemical sector, the latest article from China Index Academy pointed out that the real estate market is expected to gradually complete its consolidation at lows in the mid-to-late period of the 15th Five-Year Plan, moving towards a high-quality development stage. Policies in 2026 are expected to focus on stabilizing expectations, optimizing restrictive policies, and reducing home purchase costs, which may provide some support to downstream sectors of tin chemicals such as PVC. However, chemical enterprises currently mainly purchase on an as-needed basis, and the actual boost from end-users is not yet significant, with demand transmission still requiring time.

Overall, tin prices may continue to consolidate in the short term, and it is recommended to monitor the progress of Indonesian export quota approvals, changes in macro sentiment, and the evolution of pre-holiday stockpiling pace, while also paying attention to the impact of open interest changes in far-month contracts on the market structure.